Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the October 2019 Visa Bulletin
/In October, we typically see full recovery, or essentially full recovery, of the Final Action Dates from the previous year. Until several years ago, stakeholders could normally anticipate that low levels of demand would allow for thousands of unused numbers from EB-4 and EB-5 to become available for use in the EB-1 category. Not only have those numbers not been available in recent years, the high demand for numbers has required the application of Final Action Dates for all countries, and the dates for China and India have actually retrogressed during the past year. Going into the upcoming fiscal year, there is no expectation that there will be any extra unused numbers available to EB-1 India and EB-1 China in the foreseeable future. Charlie anticipates that both EB-1 India and EB-1 China will be subject to their minimum statutory limits of (approximately) 2,803 visa numbers for at least the first half of fiscal year (FY) 2020.
EB-1
Charlie would like to remind immigration practitioners that for planning purposes they should not expect any of the EB-1 categories to become current at any time in the foreseeable future. Charlie further predicts that there will not be any movement for EB-1 India until January 2020 at the earliest. There are currently approximately 16,000 EB-1 India applicants that were interviewed, adjudicated, and are simply waiting for a visa to become available. Potential upgrades from EB-2 India could make EB-1 India backlogs worse. EB-1 India is expected to remain severely backlogged for years, but it is too early to predict what the date movement may be in the coming years.
Potential EB-1 movement:
Worldwide:
Up to 3 months
China:
Up to 3 months
India:
Little if any forward movement
EB-2
EB-2 India will continue to have limited forward movement for the foreseeable future. This is also true to a lesser extent for EB-2 China, which reflects a change from years past where there was generally a full recovery from early year retrogression. Due to an overall increase in EB-2 China, Charlie does not expect a full recovery in FY2020. EB-3 China does not appear to have the same level of demand at this time. With the inversion of the EB-2 and EB-3 dates, it is possible the EB-2 downgrades will impact movement of the EB-3 China date later in FY2020.
At this point, demand is within the amount of available numbers to satisfy the needs for EB-2 and EB-3 worldwide. Should increasing levels of demand begin to materialize it may necessitate setting a Final Action Date for either EB-2 and/or EB-3 worldwide at some point during the second half of the fiscal year.
Potential EB-2 movement:
Worldwide:
CURRENT
China:
Up to 2 months
India:
Up to 1 week
EB-3
EB-3 has returned to "current" status for worldwide. There has been a partial recovery of the dates for EB-3 India, EB-3 China, and the EB-3 Philippines categories. There may be irregularity in movement for these categories as Charlie does not have as much visibility into pending demand. EB-3 India will have little if any forward movement until possibly January 2020.
As discussed above, at this point, demand is keeping pace with available numbers to satisfy the needs for EB-2 and EB-3 worldwide. In the coming months, increased demand may materialize which would necessitate setting a priority date for EB-2 and/or EB-3 worldwide.
Demand has been steadily increasing for EB-3 Other Workers. Of particular note is the tremendous increase in demand for EB-3 Other Workers from Mexico. The Final Action Date is typically the same for EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers, however, separate dates may need to be imposed for some categories later in FY2020.
Potential EB-3 movement:
Worldwide:
CURRENT
China:
Little if any forward movement
India:
Little if any forward movement
Mexico:
Will remain at the Worldwide date
Philippines:
Up to several months
