Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the November 2019 Visa Bulletin

EB-1:

For November, the EB-1 Final Action Dates advanced according to Charlie’s previous prediction with EB-1 Worldwide advancing approximately 5 weeks from April 22, 2018 to June 1, 2018; EB-1 China advancing a full three months from November 1, 2016 to February 1, 2017; and EB-1 India holding at January 1, 2015.

Charlie noted that for November, EB-1 China advanced the anticipated three full months due to lower than expected demand, but cautioned that the rate of advancement could slow down. Members should not expect EB-1 India to advance for some time since there is already significant number use and pending demand in that category. Charlie noted that he has already given out 17% of the targeted EB-1 India numbers set aside for Q1 of the fiscal year. Since EB-1 China and EB-1 India will be subject to their per country limits in the foreseeable future, the only possibility of more rapid movement in these categories is if demand for visas in EB-1 Worldwide were to fall below that allowed under the overall annual limit.

The latest report Charlie received from USCIS shows significantly lower demand in EB-1 Worldwide compared to the last few years. He notes that the potential demand reported for EB-2 Worldwide and EB-3 Worldwide combined dwarfs the reported demand for EB-1 Worldwide.

If this low demand trend continues, EB-1 Worldwide could potentially return to current at some point this fiscal year. Practitioners should not expect to see this happen prior to April at the earliest, and should be cautioned that a significant increase in demand in this category could prevent this possibility. If EB-1 Worldwide does return to current again, EB-1 India, and possibly China, would benefit from the "otherwise unused numbers" which would allow the Final Action Date to advance at a faster pace for those two countries.

In the past, Charlie was able to wait until closer to the end of the fiscal year to redistribute the otherwise unused worldwide numbers in the EB-3 and EB-1 categories, allowing the India and China categories to advance. More recently, the high demand in EB-3 and EB-1 Worldwide prevented these categories for China and India from advancing as they had in the past. This has resulted in significant amounts of pending demand awaiting forward movement of the Final Action Dates, particularly for India.

Charlie reports that there are 17,000 pre-adjudicated EB-1 India requests pending at USCIS or overseas posts. No forward movement is expected in EB-1 India through January. However, when the date does begin to move, there is a potential for EB-1 India to leap forward by up to 6-8 months because of low concentration of demand in the weekly groupings.

EB-2:

EB-2 Worldwide remains current for November and is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.

In November, EB-2 India advances only one day from May 12, 2009 to May 13, 2009, which is consistent with Charlie’s earlier prediction that it will advance at a pace of "(u)p to one week." Charlie is starting to see an increase in upgrades from EB-3 India to EB-2 India, with the numbers requested so far in October most likely being attributable to upgrade requests.

EB-2 China advances two months in November from January 1, 2015 to March 1, 2015. Given that the Final Action Date for EB-3 China (November 1, 2015) is eight months ahead of EB-2 China, it is likely to prompt downgrades which could take the pressure off of EB-2 China demand, causing that category to advance.

EB-3:

The EB-3 category bears watching as we continue to move into Q2 of the fiscal year and beyond, and especially EB-3 Other Workers. Charlie is very surprised at the high level of numbers used in this category this fiscal year as well as pending demand for this category, noting that it is significantly higher than it has been in the past to the tune of thousands. Nevertheless, Charlie still expects EB-3 Worldwide to remain current through at least January.

EB-3 China is receiving a high level of downgrade requests, with 300 requests in October alone, causing its Final Action Date to hold at November 1, 2015 for November. As noted above, if this trend continues it will limit the advancement of EB-3 China while potentially increasing the rate of advancement for EB-2 China.

Members should expect little to no movement for EB-3 India.