Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the January 2020 Visa Bulletin

EB-1

In January, the EB-1 Worldwide Final Action Date advances 2.5 months to October 1, 2018. The EB-1 China Final Action Date advances one week to May 22, 2017, and EB-1 India’s Final Action Date continues to hold at January 1, 2015. While EB-1 China and EB-1 India demand remain high, rest of world demand has tapered off and is currently lower than Charlie’s monthly use target. If this trend continues, EB-1 Worldwide could potentially become current by the summer of 2020.

EB-1 China will continue to advance at a pace of up to three weeks, but members should not expect EB-1 India to advance in the near future. There continues to be sufficient demand in this category for applicants with priority dates that are earlier than January 1, 2015 to enable Charlie to reach his target without having to advance the Final Action Date.

EB-2 Worldwide & EB-3 Worldwide

Last month’s Check-in warned of the possibility of retrogression in the EB-2 Worldwide and EB-3 Worldwide categories as early as January 2020. We were pleasantly surprised that these categories will remain current for January. Members should continue to monitor these categories closely moving forward, as Charlie has informed AILA that Final Action Dates will be imposed in these categories—it is merely a matter of when that will occur. He notes that EB-3 Worldwide will have a Final Action Date imposed no later than March 2020, with a strong possibility of that happening in February. EB-2 Worldwide is likely to remain current longer than EB-3 Worldwide, and hopefully no cut-off date will be required until after March 2020.

The longer these categories remain Current, the more likely it is that the retrogression will be more significant so as to severely limit the number usage for a period of time.

The EB-2 China Final Action Date advances one week in January to July 1, 2015, and EB-2 India advances 3 days to May 18, 2009. Over the coming months, Charlie expects EB-2 China to advance at a pace of up to one month, with EB-2 India advancing at a rate of up to one week. Charlie notes that EB-2 China demand has picked up at a steady pace, but still remains manageable for now.

The EB-3 China Final Action Date advances one month to December 1, 2015, in January, which positions EB-3 China’s Final Action Date five months ahead of EB-2 China, maintaining a climate favorable for downgrades. Charlie predicts that the EB-3 China Final Action Date will continue to advance at a rate of up to six weeks. China EB-3 Other Worker category will continue to have an earlier Final Action Date than EB-3 China due to excessive demand in this category.

The EB-3 India Final Action Date holds at January 1, 2009, for January, keeping it almost five months behind EB-2 India, maintaining a climate favorable for upgrades. Charlie predicts advancement of “up to” three weeks for EB-3 India, but notes that we should not expect to see any movement in this category until the demand begins to drop below his monthly target number usage.

EB-3 Other Worker Worldwide is likely to have a Final Action Date imposed in the coming months.